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BKMA vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

BKMA

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

UPCOMING

FC Urartu

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-113.2%0-28.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.9%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.5%2-16.7%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 20.0% 5.00 +52.5%

Draw 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Away win 41.8% 63.7% 1.57 -34.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 59.9% 1.67 -25.7%

Over 3.5 25.7% 37.0% 2.70 -18.4%

BTTS 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.1% 3.22 -0.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 61.3% 1.63 -40.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA1.0

FC Urartu1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 0.83

FC URARTU · PPG 1.76

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 30.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +52.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

FC Urartu (A) 41.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face FC Urartu in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 31% chance, the draw 28% and FC Urartu 42%, so FC Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for BKMA and 1.2 for FC Urartu (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.76 for FC Urartu. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.2%.

BKMA vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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