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Ituzaingo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 5 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 22:30

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-117.5%0-29.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.6%1-113.0%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.7%2-14.8%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 35.7% 2.80 -13.0%

Draw 34.2% 34.7% 2.88 -1.5%

Away win 37.8% 39.2% 2.55 -3.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 37.0% 2.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 10.4% 20.0% 5.00 -28.8%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 17.0% 30.8% 3.25 -26.9%

Away O1.5 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 0–1 17.5%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.6%

#5 0–2✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingo0.7

D. Laferrere1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.50

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.13) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingo (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -1.5%

D. Laferrere (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingo face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingo a 28% chance, the draw 34% and D. Laferrere 38%, so D. Laferrere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ituzaingo and 1.0 for D. Laferrere (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingo are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.13 for D. Laferrere. This match finished 0-2.

Ituzaingo vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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