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D. Armenio vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 5 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 18:30

D. Armenio

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-117.6%0-27.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-112.7%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.5%2-14.6%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 33.9% 2.95 -9.6%

Draw 38.6% 35.1% 2.85 +10.0%

Away win 32.8% 40.8% 2.45 -19.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 33.9% 2.95 +3.3%

Over 3.5 7.1% 16.7% 6.00 -34.4%

BTTS 46.2% 43.5% 2.30 +6.3%

Home O1.5 16.3% 27.0% 3.70 -23.8%

Away O1.5 20.0% 32.3% 3.10 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

D 39% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.4%

#2 0–1 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 15.4%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Armenio0.7

Argentino Merlo0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. ARMENIO · PPG 1.14

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

D. Armenio (H) 28.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.6%

Draw 38.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +10.0%

Argentino Merlo (A) 32.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Armenio face Argentino Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Armenio a 28% chance, the draw 39% and Argentino Merlo 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for D. Armenio and 0.8 for Argentino Merlo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Armenio are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Argentino Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-0.

D. Armenio vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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