Today / Bosnia - Premijer Liga / FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar

FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 18:30

FK Sarajevo

PPG 2.24 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Zeljeznicar

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-110.1%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.4%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.7%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 66.7% 1.50 -27.4%

Draw 28.2% 26.3% 3.80 +4.3%

Away win 23.4% 18.2% 5.50 +17.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

Over 3.5 12.9% 31.3% 3.20 -35.2%

BTTS 48.6% 49.3% 2.03 -1.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 59.2% 1.69 -40.8%

Away O1.5 15.1% 19.8% 5.05 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–0✓ 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Sarajevo1.2

Zeljeznicar0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 2.24

ZELJEZNICAR · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=48.4%

Win probability 1X2

FK Sarajevo (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -27.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +4.3%

Zeljeznicar (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Sarajevo face Zeljeznicar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Sarajevo a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Zeljeznicar 23%, so FK Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FK Sarajevo and 0.7 for Zeljeznicar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Sarajevo are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.06 for Zeljeznicar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-0.

FK Sarajevo vs Zeljeznicar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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