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Rudar Prijedor vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:30

Rudar Prijedor

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

FK Sarajevo

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-116.0%0-29.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.0%1-113.1%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.5%2-15.3%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.2%3-11.5%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 37.7% 2.65 -16.4%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 43.1% 40.8% 2.45 +5.6%

Over 2.5 39.7% 47.6% 2.10 -16.6%

Over 3.5 14.3% 26.3% 3.80 -27.4%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudar Prijedor0.8

FK Sarajevo1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDAR PRIJEDOR · PPG 1.13

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Rudar Prijedor (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.4%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

FK Sarajevo (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudar Prijedor face FK Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudar Prijedor a 27% chance, the draw 30% and FK Sarajevo 43%, so FK Sarajevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rudar Prijedor and 1.2 for FK Sarajevo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudar Prijedor are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.13 for FK Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-4.

Rudar Prijedor vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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