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Siroki Brijeg vs R. Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 36 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 16:00

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.59 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

R. Bijeljina

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-112.9%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.8%2-16.5%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 50.0% 2.00 -16.6%

Draw 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

Away win 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 3.5 9.9% 25.6% 3.90 -36.8%

BTTS 46.2% 53.5% 1.87 -13.6%

Home O1.5 26.6% 44.1% 2.27 -23.8%

Away O1.5 16.9% 29.9% 3.34 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siroki Brijeg1.0

R. Bijeljina0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.59

R. BIJELJINA · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.59) vs P(Home)=41.7%

Win probability 1X2

Siroki Brijeg (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.6%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.1%

R. Bijeljina (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siroki Brijeg face R. Bijeljina in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siroki Brijeg a 42% chance, the draw 34% and R. Bijeljina 25%, so Siroki Brijeg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Siroki Brijeg and 0.7 for R. Bijeljina (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siroki Brijeg are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.53 for R. Bijeljina. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 4-0.

Siroki Brijeg vs R. Bijeljina Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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