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Posusje vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:45

Posusje

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Velez Mostar

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.3%0-118.0%0-27.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-112.5%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.3%2-14.3%2-21.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 54.1% 1.85 -30.4%

Draw 40.0% 32.3% 3.10 +24.0%

Away win 33.3% 24.4% 4.10 +36.5%

Over 2.5 27.3% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Over 3.5 6.6% 19.6% 5.10 -39.8%

BTTS 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.3%

#2 0–1 18.0%

#3 1–1✓ 12.5%

#4 1–0 15.4%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Posusje0.7

Velez Mostar0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.3% · O3.5 PROB 6.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POSUSJE · PPG 1.25

VELEZ MOSTAR · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Posusje (H) 26.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -30.4%

Draw 40.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +24.0%

Velez Mostar (A) 33.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Posusje face Velez Mostar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Posusje a 27% chance, the draw 40% and Velez Mostar 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Posusje and 0.8 for Velez Mostar (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Posusje are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.19 for Velez Mostar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Posusje vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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