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Siroki Brijeg vs Borac Banja L. Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 17:30

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Borac Banja L.

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-117.0%0-214.2%0-37.9%0-4+4.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.4%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.0%2 2-01.9%2-13.2%2-22.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% 19.0% 5.25 -18.1%

Draw 26.9% 26.3% 3.80 +1.3%

Away win 59.8% 64.5% 1.55 -7.3%

Over 2.5 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%

Over 3.5 19.8% 30.8% 3.25 -21.4%

BTTS 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.2%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 17.0%

#2 0–2 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siroki Brijeg0.6

Borac Banja L.1.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.69

BORAC BANJA L. · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.69) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Siroki Brijeg (H) 13.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -18.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.3%

Borac Banja L. (A) 59.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siroki Brijeg face Borac Banja L. in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siroki Brijeg a 13% chance, the draw 27% and Borac Banja L. 60%, so Borac Banja L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Siroki Brijeg and 1.7 for Borac Banja L. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siroki Brijeg are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 2.06 for Borac Banja L.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Siroki Brijeg vs Borac Banja L. Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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