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FK Sarajevo vs Borac Banja L. Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

FK Sarajevo

PPG 2.47 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Borac Banja L.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 35.7% 2.80 -18.8%

Draw 31.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.9%

Away win 39.9% 38.5% 2.60 +3.7%

Over 2.5 43.9% 38.5% 2.60 +14.1%

Over 3.5 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +2.6%

BTTS 51.1% 48.8% 2.05 +4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.1%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1✓ 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Sarajevo1.1

Borac Banja L.1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 2.47

BORAC BANJA L. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.47) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

FK Sarajevo (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.9%

Borac Banja L. (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Sarajevo face Borac Banja L. in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Sarajevo a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Borac Banja L. 40%, so Borac Banja L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Sarajevo and 1.3 for Borac Banja L. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Sarajevo are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 2.00 for Borac Banja L.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 0-1.

FK Sarajevo vs Borac Banja L. Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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