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Lysekloster vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 13:00

Lysekloster

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Arendal

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+24.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.2%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.1%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 37.7% 2.65 +45.8%

Draw 23.1% 27.4% 3.65 -9.4%

Away win 21.8% 45.5% 2.20 -31.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 67.6% 1.48 -9.1%

Over 3.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

BTTS 53.5% 70.4% 1.42 -24.0%

Home O1.5 63.8% 51.3% 1.95 +24.4%

Away O1.5 24.3% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.5%

H 55% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1✓ 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lysekloster2.2

Arendal0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LYSEKLOSTER · PPG 1.33

ARENDAL · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Lysekloster (H) 55.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +45.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.4%

Arendal (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lysekloster face Arendal in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lysekloster a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Arendal 22%, so Lysekloster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lysekloster and 0.9 for Arendal (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lysekloster are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Arendal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Lysekloster vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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