Today / Basingstoke T. vs Tiverton Town

Basingstoke T. vs Tiverton Town Prediction

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Basingstoke T.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tiverton Town

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.0%1-15.5%1-23.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-18.2%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-112.9%4+-27.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.7% — — —

Draw 13.7% — — —

Away win 10.6% — — —

Over 2.5 77.5% — — —

Over 3.5 58.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.2%

H 76% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 3–0 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Basingstoke T.3.0

Tiverton Town1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.5% · O3.5 PROB 58.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BASINGSTOKE T. · PPG 1.40

TIVERTON TOWN · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Basingstoke T. (H) 75.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tiverton Town (A) 10.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Basingstoke T. face Tiverton Town on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Basingstoke T. a 76% chance, the draw 14% and Tiverton Town 11%, so Basingstoke T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Basingstoke T. and 1.1 for Tiverton Town (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Basingstoke T. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Tiverton Town. This match finished 3-1.

Basingstoke T. vs Tiverton Town Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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