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Worcester City vs St. Ives Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Worcester City

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St. Ives Town

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.0%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-19.8%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.3%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% 61.7% 1.62 +6.4%

Draw 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

Away win 13.6% 26.3% 3.80 -48.3%

Over 2.5 50.9% 61.7% 1.62 -17.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.0%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Worcester City2.0

St. Ives Town0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WORCESTER CITY · PPG 1.53

ST. IVES TOWN · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Worcester City (H) 65.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +6.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -10.4%

St. Ives Town (A) 13.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -48.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Worcester City face St. Ives Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Worcester City a 66% chance, the draw 21% and St. Ives Town 14%, so Worcester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Worcester City and 0.8 for St. Ives Town (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Worcester City are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.75 for St. Ives Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Worcester City vs St. Ives Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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