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Alvechurch vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Alvechurch

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leiston

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.9%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-17.9%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.2%

Away win 38.5% 37.0% 2.70 +4.0%

Over 2.5 48.2% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alvechurch1.3

Leiston1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVECHURCH · PPG 1.20

LEISTON · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Alvechurch (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.2%

Leiston (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alvechurch face Leiston in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alvechurch a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Leiston 39%, so Leiston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alvechurch and 1.3 for Leiston (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alvechurch are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.55 for Leiston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Alvechurch vs Leiston Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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