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Bury Town vs Kettering Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bury Town

PPG 1.45 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kettering Town

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.8%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 21.7% 4.60 +81.2%

Draw 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -3.3%

Away win 35.8% 64.5% 1.55 -44.5%

Over 2.5 55.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 58.3% 61.7% 1.62 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.3%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 0–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bury Town1.5

Kettering Town1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BURY TOWN · PPG 1.45

KETTERING TOWN · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Bury Town (H) 39.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +81.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.3%

Kettering Town (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bury Town face Kettering Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bury Town a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Kettering Town 36%, so Bury Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bury Town and 1.4 for Kettering Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bury Town are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.50 for Kettering Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +81.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Bury Town vs Kettering Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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