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Barwell vs B. Stortford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Barwell

PPG 0.90 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

B. Stortford

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.6%0-26.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.5%1-110.8%1-29.0%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.4%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.0%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 30.8% 3.25 +7.6%

Draw 23.7% 30.3% 3.30 -21.8%

Away win 43.1% 51.3% 1.95 -16.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% — — —

Over 3.5 37.2% — — —

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barwell1.4

B. Stortford1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARWELL · PPG 0.90

B. STORTFORD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.90), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Barwell (H) 33.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +7.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -21.8%

B. Stortford (A) 43.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barwell face B. Stortford in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barwell a 33% chance, the draw 24% and B. Stortford 43%, so B. Stortford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barwell and 1.7 for B. Stortford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barwell are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.00 for B. Stortford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Barwell vs B. Stortford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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