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Halesowen Town vs AFC Sudbury Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Halesowen Town

PPG 1.95 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

AFC Sudbury

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 89.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.3%1-12.5%1-21.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.8%2-15.1%2-22.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-17.0%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-020.2%4+-121.6%4+-211.5%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.6% 87.7% 1.14 -0.1%

Draw 7.5% 13.3% 7.50 -43.8%

Away win 4.9% 7.7% 13.00 -36.3%

Over 2.5 89.0% 78.1% 1.28 +13.9%

Over 3.5 75.9% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 87%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob64.5%

H 88% / xG 4.1-1.1 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.2%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 4–0 6.7%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 5–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halesowen Town4.1

AFC Sudbury1.1

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.0% · O3.5 PROB 75.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HALESOWEN TOWN · PPG 1.95

AFC SUDBURY · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.95), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Halesowen Town (H) 87.6%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -0.1%

Draw 7.5%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -43.8%

AFC Sudbury (A) 4.9%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halesowen Town face AFC Sudbury in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halesowen Town a 88% chance, the draw 8% and AFC Sudbury 5%, so Halesowen Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Halesowen Town and 1.1 for AFC Sudbury (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halesowen Town are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 0.60 for AFC Sudbury. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 5-0.

Halesowen Town vs AFC Sudbury Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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