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Needham Market vs Banbury Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Matchday 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Needham Market

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Banbury Utd

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Home 66% chance

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.0%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -13.4%

Away win 18.4% 16.7% 6.00 +10.4%

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 49.8% 55.6% 1.80 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.8%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Needham Market1.8

Banbury Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEEDHAM MARKET · PPG 2.15

BANBURY UTD · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs P(Home)=58.8%

Win probability 1X2

Needham Market (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -15.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.4%

Banbury Utd (A) 18.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Needham Market face Banbury Utd in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Needham Market a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Banbury Utd 18%, so Needham Market are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Needham Market and 0.9 for Banbury Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Needham Market are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.90 for Banbury Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Needham Market vs Banbury Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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