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Sotra vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 12:00

Sotra

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Bjarg

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 81.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.3%1-14.9%1-21.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-17.7%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-18.0%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.4%4+-113.6%4+-25.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 64.5% 1.55 +10.1%

Draw 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

Away win 8.6% 21.1% 4.75 -35.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 54.6% 46.5% 2.15 +17.4%

BTTS 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Home O1.5 81.8% 69.0% 1.45 +18.6%

Away O1.5 18.4% 37.0% 2.70 -30.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -22.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 71% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.2%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 4–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sotra3.1

Bjarg0.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOTRA · PPG 2.33

BJARG · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sotra (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +10.1%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.0%

Bjarg (A) 8.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sotra face Bjarg in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sotra a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Bjarg 9%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Sotra and 0.8 for Bjarg (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sotra are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Bjarg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Sotra vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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