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Stratford Town vs Bromsgrove Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stratford Town

PPG 1.85 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bromsgrove

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+23.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.5%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 50.0% 2.00 +23.6%

Draw 20.4% 28.6% 3.50 -28.6%

Away win 17.7% 32.3% 3.10 -45.1%

Over 2.5 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 56.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.3%

H 62% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stratford Town2.1

Bromsgrove1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STRATFORD TOWN · PPG 1.85

BROMSGROVE · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.85) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

Stratford Town (H) 61.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +23.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -28.6%

Bromsgrove (A) 17.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stratford Town face Bromsgrove in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stratford Town a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Bromsgrove 18%, so Stratford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stratford Town and 1.0 for Bromsgrove (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stratford Town are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.86 for Bromsgrove. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Stratford Town vs Bromsgrove Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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