Today / E. Merida vs Metropolitanos

E. Merida vs Metropolitanos Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

E. Merida

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Metropolitanos

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-114.2%0-28.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.4%2-16.3%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.7%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 38.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.2% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.1%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 0–1✓ 14.2%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Merida0.9

Metropolitanos1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.63

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

E. Merida (H) 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metropolitanos (A) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Merida face Metropolitanos on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Merida a 32% chance, the draw 30% and Metropolitanos 38%, so Metropolitanos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for E. Merida and 1.2 for Metropolitanos (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Merida are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Metropolitanos. This match finished 0-1.

E. Merida vs Metropolitanos Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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