Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / APIA Leichhardt vs Marconi S.

APIA Leichhardt vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Marconi S.

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.8%0-25.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.3%1-110.5%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.0%2-26.6%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.1%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 40.8% 2.45 -10.3%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 37.8% 40.0% 2.50 -5.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 38.5% 2.60 +2.4%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 38% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt1.5

Marconi S.1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 3.00

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (3.00) > Away EXCELLENT (2.27)

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -10.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Marconi S. (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Marconi S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Marconi S. 38%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for APIA Leichhardt and 1.7 for Marconi S. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.27 for Marconi S.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-1.

APIA Leichhardt vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions