Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Melbourne C. B vs Dandenong T.

Melbourne C. B vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dandenong T.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.1%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.1%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.1%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

Draw 24.2% 25.3% 3.95 -2.6%

Away win 23.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne C. B2.0

Dandenong T.1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.00

DANDENONG T. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne C. B (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.6%

Dandenong T. (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne C. B face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne C. B a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Dandenong T. 24%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melbourne C. B and 1.1 for Dandenong T. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne C. B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Melbourne C. B vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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