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Blacktown City vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.5%1-18.2%1-25.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.2%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.2%4+-24.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 61.0% 1.64 -13.9%

Draw 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

Away win 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City2.3

Sydney Olympic1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 1.00

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -13.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.0%

Sydney Olympic (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face Sydney Olympic in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Sydney Olympic 25%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Blacktown City and 1.3 for Sydney Olympic (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Blacktown City vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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