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Robina City vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 04:30

Robina City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Caboolture

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.1%0-21.3%0-31.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-01.3%1-13.2%1-23.9%1-33.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-25.8%2-34.7%2-4+5.0%3 3-02.0%3-14.8%3-25.8%3-34.7%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-17.6%4+-29.2%4+-37.4%4+-4+7.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 78.9% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

H 50% / xG 3.0-2.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.8%

#2 2–2 5.8%

#3 3–1 4.8%

#4 2–1 4.8%

#5 3–3 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Robina City3.0

Caboolture2.4

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 78.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ROBINA CITY · PPG 1.80

CABOOLTURE · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.80) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Robina City (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caboolture (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Robina City face Caboolture in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Robina City a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Caboolture 29%, so Robina City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Robina City and 2.4 for Caboolture (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Robina City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.25 for Caboolture. This match finished 0-1.

Robina City vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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