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Preston Lions vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Preston Lions

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.1%0-27.8%0-34.0%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.5%2-17.0%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Draw 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

Away win 42.9% 50.0% 2.00 -14.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 29.4% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1✓ 10.1%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston Lions1.2

Oakleigh C.1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 1.67

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Preston Lions (H) 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.2%

Oakleigh C. (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston Lions face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston Lions a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Oakleigh C. 43%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Preston Lions and 1.6 for Oakleigh C. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston Lions are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Oakleigh C.. This match finished 0-1.

Preston Lions vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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