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Wollongong W. vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 05:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

S George Saints

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.3%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.1%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-18.8%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 21.5% 32.3% 3.10 -20.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% 36.4% 2.75 -30.0%

BTTS 48.6% 63.7% 1.57 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0✓ 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.4

S George Saints0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.83

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

S George Saints (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face S George Saints in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 52% chance, the draw 27% and S George Saints 22%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wollongong W. and 0.8 for S George Saints (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.88 for S George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Wollongong W. vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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