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Royston vs Stamford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Royston

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Stamford

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.6%0-26.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.3%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.4%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 27.0% 3.70 +29.9%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 36.6% 54.1% 1.85 -32.3%

Over 2.5 40.9% 55.6% 1.80 -26.4%

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 47.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.1%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Royston1.1

Stamford1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROYSTON · PPG 0.60

STAMFORD · PPG 0.55

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Royston (H) 35.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +29.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Stamford (A) 36.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Royston face Stamford in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Royston a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Stamford 37%, so Stamford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Royston and 1.2 for Stamford (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Royston are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.55 for Stamford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Royston vs Stamford Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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