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Real Bedford vs Alvechurch Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Real Bedford

PPG 1.90 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alvechurch

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.6%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.4%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.3% 57.8% 1.73 +7.8%

Draw 22.0% 25.0% 4.00 -12.0%

Away win 15.7% 28.6% 3.50 -45.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% — — —

BTTS 46.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.8%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.9%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Bedford1.9

Alvechurch0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BEDFORD · PPG 1.90

ALVECHURCH · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.90) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Real Bedford (H) 62.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +7.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.0%

Alvechurch (A) 15.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Bedford face Alvechurch in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Bedford a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Alvechurch 16%, so Real Bedford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Real Bedford and 0.8 for Alvechurch (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Bedford are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.25 for Alvechurch. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Real Bedford vs Alvechurch Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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