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Quorn vs Needham Market Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Quorn

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Needham Market

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.8%0-24.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.7%1-110.2%1-27.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.4%3-15.1%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.3%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 40.8% 2.45 +6.1%

Draw 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

Away win 33.7% 43.5% 2.30 -22.5%

Over 2.5 63.2% 63.7% 1.57 -0.8%

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 64.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.4%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quorn1.7

Needham Market1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QUORN · PPG 1.60

NEEDHAM MARKET · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Quorn (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.9%

Needham Market (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quorn face Needham Market in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quorn a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Needham Market 34%, so Quorn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Quorn and 1.5 for Needham Market (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quorn are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.30 for Needham Market. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Quorn vs Needham Market Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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