Today / CA Guemes vs Patronato

CA Guemes vs Patronato Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

CA Guemes

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Patronato

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.3%0-115.5%0-26.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.8%2-15.5%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% — — —

Draw 35.3% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 8.5% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0✓ 16.2%

#4 0–1 15.5%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Guemes0.8

Patronato0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.14

PATRONATO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

CA Guemes (H) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patronato (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face Patronato on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Patronato 27%, so CA Guemes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for CA Guemes and 0.8 for Patronato (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Patronato. This match finished 1-0.

CA Guemes vs Patronato Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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