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Leiston vs Spalding Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Leiston

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spalding Utd

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.1%0-26.6%0-34.8%0-4+4.4%1 1-03.9%1-18.5%1-29.3%1-36.7%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.5%2-34.7%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 35.7% 2.80 -32.2%

Draw 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -23.5%

Away win 55.4% 48.8% 2.05 +13.6%

Over 2.5 69.5% 65.4% 1.53 +6.3%

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 66.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.9%

A 55% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 1–3 6.7%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiston1.4

Spalding Utd2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEISTON · PPG 1.50

SPALDING UTD · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Leiston (H) 24.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -32.2%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -23.5%

Spalding Utd (A) 55.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiston face Spalding Utd in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiston a 24% chance, the draw 20% and Spalding Utd 55%, so Spalding Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leiston and 2.2 for Spalding Utd (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiston are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.06 for Spalding Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Leiston vs Spalding Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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