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Brentford U21 vs Swansea U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Brentford U21

PPG 2.15 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Swansea U21

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.8%0-22.0%0-31.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.3%1-14.8%1-25.1%1-33.7%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.3%2-26.7%2-34.8%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.6%3-15.5%3-25.9%3-34.2%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.8%4+-27.2%4+-35.1%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 62.5% 1.60 -21.0%

Draw 18.5% 23.1% 4.33 -19.9%

Away win 32.1% 26.3% 3.80 +22.0%

Over 2.5 85.3% — — —

Over 3.5 69.9% 62.5% 1.60 +11.8%

BTTS 81.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob81.7%

H 49% / xG 2.6-2.1 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 82%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2✓ 6.7%

#2 2–1 6.3%

#3 3–2 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.5%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford U212.6

Swansea U212.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD U21 · PPG 2.15

SWANSEA U21 · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.15) > Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Brentford U21 (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -21.0%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -19.9%

Swansea U21 (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford U21 face Swansea U21 in England - Professional Development League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford U21 a 49% chance, the draw 19% and Swansea U21 32%, so Brentford U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Brentford U21 and 2.1 for Swansea U21 (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 82% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford U21 are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.58 for Swansea U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Brentford U21 vs Swansea U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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