Today / England - Professional Development League / Coventry U21 vs Crewe A. U21

Coventry U21 vs Crewe A. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 12:00

Coventry U21

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Crewe A. U21

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.7%0-24.6%0-33.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.3%1-18.3%1-28.2%1-35.3%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.2%3-14.3%3-24.2%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 54.1% 1.85 -34.5%

Draw 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -14.4%

Away win 43.2% 32.3% 3.10 +33.9%

Over 2.5 71.8% — — —

Over 3.5 51.1% — — —

BTTS 71.2% 76.9% 1.30 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob71.2%

A 43% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coventry U211.8

Crewe A. U212.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COVENTRY U21 · PPG 1.00

CREWE A. U21 · PPG 0.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Coventry U21 (H) 35.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.5%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.4%

Crewe A. U21 (A) 43.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coventry U21 face Crewe A. U21 in England - Professional Development League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coventry U21 a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Crewe A. U21 43%, so Crewe A. U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Coventry U21 and 2.0 for Crewe A. U21 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coventry U21 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Crewe A. U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Coventry U21 vs Crewe A. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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