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Watford U21 vs Charlton U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 12:00

Watford U21

PPG 2.08 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Charlton U21

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.2%0-21.7%0-31.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-01.1%1-13.1%1-24.5%1-34.4%1-4+6.5%2 2-01.4%2-14.0%2-25.8%2-35.6%2-4+8.4%3 3-01.2%3-13.4%3-25.0%3-34.9%3-4+7.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-14.1%4+-26.0%4+-35.8%4+-4+8.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 55.6% 1.80 -35.9%

Draw 17.5% 23.8% 4.20 -26.5%

Away win 46.9% 32.3% 3.10 +45.4%

Over 2.5 91.1% — — —

Over 3.5 79.8% 62.5% 1.60 +27.7%

BTTS 87.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob87.4%

A 47% / xG 2.6-2.9 / O2.5 91% / BTTS 87%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 5.8%

#2 2–3 5.6%

#3 3–2 5.0%

#4 3–3 4.9%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Watford U212.6

Charlton U212.9

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 91.1% · O3.5 PROB 79.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WATFORD U21 · PPG 2.08

CHARLTON U21 · PPG 1.31

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Watford U21 (H) 35.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -35.9%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -26.5%

Charlton U21 (A) 46.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Watford U21 face Charlton U21 in England - Professional Development League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Watford U21 a 36% chance, the draw 18% and Charlton U21 47%, so Charlton U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Watford U21 and 2.9 for Charlton U21 (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 91% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 87% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Watford U21 are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.31 for Charlton U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Watford U21 vs Charlton U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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