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Sheffield W U21 vs Crewe A. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 11:00

Sheffield W U21

PPG 1.23 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Crewe A. U21

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.5%0-22.0%0-31.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-01.4%1-13.8%1-25.1%1-34.5%1-4+5.9%2 2-01.7%2-14.7%2-26.3%2-35.7%2-4+7.3%3 3-01.4%3-13.9%3-25.2%3-34.7%3-4+6.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-14.4%4+-25.9%4+-35.3%4+-4+6.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 57.1% 1.75 -34.4%

Draw 18.1% 25.0% 4.00 -27.6%

Away win 44.4% 29.4% 3.40 +51.0%

Over 2.5 89.0% — — —

Over 3.5 76.0% — — —

BTTS 85.5% 73.5% 1.36 +16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 18%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob85.5%

A 44% / xG 2.5-2.7 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 86%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 2–3 5.7%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 3–3 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield W U212.5

Crewe A. U212.7

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.0% · O3.5 PROB 76.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD W U21 · PPG 1.23

CREWE A. U21 · PPG 0.77

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.23) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield W U21 (H) 37.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -34.4%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -27.6%

Crewe A. U21 (A) 44.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +51.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield W U21 face Crewe A. U21 in England - Professional Development League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield W U21 a 38% chance, the draw 18% and Crewe A. U21 44%, so Crewe A. U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sheffield W U21 and 2.7 for Crewe A. U21 (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 86% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield W U21 are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.77 for Crewe A. U21. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Sheffield W U21 vs Crewe A. U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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