Today / Bolnisi vs Gareji Sagarejo

Bolnisi vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Bolnisi

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.4%0-118.4%0-27.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-112.3%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.2%2-14.1%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% — — —

Draw 40.3% — — —

Away win 33.2% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 6.0% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.4%

#2 0–1 18.4%

#3 1–1✓ 12.3%

#4 1–0 15.6%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolnisi0.7

Gareji Sagarejo0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLNISI · PPG 1.71

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Bolnisi (H) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gareji Sagarejo (A) 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolnisi face Gareji Sagarejo on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolnisi a 27% chance, the draw 40% and Gareji Sagarejo 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bolnisi and 0.8 for Gareji Sagarejo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolnisi are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.71 for Gareji Sagarejo. This match finished 1-1.

Bolnisi vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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