Today / Malaga vs Racing

Malaga vs Racing Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Malaga

PPG 2.10 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Racing

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.4%0-23.6%0-32.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.3%1-18.7%1-27.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.7%3-24.6%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.4%4+-23.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.8% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malaga2.0

Racing1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MALAGA · PPG 2.10

RACING · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.10) > Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Malaga (H) 46.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Racing (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Malaga face Racing on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malaga a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Racing 30%, so Malaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malaga and 1.6 for Racing (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malaga are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.70 for Racing. This match finished 1-1.

Malaga vs Racing Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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