Today / England - Non League Premier - Southern Central / Barwell vs Bury Town

Barwell vs Bury Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Barwell

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bury Town

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.6%0-27.6%0-35.1%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -18.7%

Draw 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -18.3%

Away win 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% — — —

BTTS 62.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.2%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barwell1.3

Bury Town2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARWELL · PPG 0.95

BURY TOWN · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.95) vs Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Barwell (H) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -18.3%

Bury Town (A) 54.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barwell face Bury Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barwell a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Bury Town 55%, so Bury Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barwell and 2.0 for Bury Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barwell are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.30 for Bury Town. This match finished 0-3.

Barwell vs Bury Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Southern Central Predictions