Barwell vs Bury Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

England - Non League Premier - Southern Central Regular Season - 41 Crown Skip Hire Stadium· Barwell, Leicestershire Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Barwell PPG 0.95

0-3 MISS

Bury Town PPG 1.30

Over2.5· -0.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Barwell face Bury Town in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barwell a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Bury Town 55%, so Bury Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barwell and 2.0 for Bury Town (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barwell are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.30 for Bury Town. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.9%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -18.7%

Draw 21.5%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -18.3%

Away 54.6%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -1.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.6% Odds: 1.57 -0.1%

Over 3.5 41.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 62.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Barwell

1.27

Bury Town

2.01

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -0.1% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.95) vs Away AVERAGE (1.30)