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Shturmi vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 16:00

Shturmi

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Aragvi Dusheti

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-111.3%0-23.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.5%1-111.9%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.9%2-16.3%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 60.6% 1.65 -23.4%

Draw 32.3% 29.4% 3.40 +9.8%

Away win 21.3% 21.1% 4.75 +0.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 8.5% 28.6% 3.50 -42.1%

BTTS 46.2% 52.1% 1.92 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 1–0 20.5%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0✓ 10.9%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shturmi1.1

Aragvi Dusheti0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHTURMI · PPG 1.86

ARAGVI DUSHETI · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Shturmi (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -23.4%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +9.8%

Aragvi Dusheti (A) 21.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shturmi face Aragvi Dusheti in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shturmi a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Aragvi Dusheti 21%, so Shturmi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shturmi and 0.6 for Aragvi Dusheti (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shturmi are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Aragvi Dusheti. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Shturmi vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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