Today / Smederevo vs Kabel Novi Sad

Smederevo vs Kabel Novi Sad Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Smederevo
PPG 1.74 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME
Kabel Novi Sad
PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.74) > Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.9%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 50.2%
Draw 26.2%
Away win 23.6%
Over 2.5 46.2%
Over 3.5 19.8%
BTTS 49.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%
#2 1–0 14.9%
#3 0–0 10.2%
#4 2–0 10.9%
#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smederevo1.5
Kabel Novi Sad0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDEREVO · PPG 1.74

KABEL NOVI SAD · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.74) > Away AVERAGE (1.32)

Win probability 1X2

Smederevo (H) 50.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Kabel Novi Sad (A) 23.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smederevo face Kabel Novi Sad on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smederevo a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Kabel Novi Sad 24%, so Smederevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Smederevo and 0.8 for Kabel Novi Sad (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smederevo are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.32 for Kabel Novi Sad. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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