AFC Sudbury vs Stourbridge Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

England - Non League Premier - Southern Central Regular Season - 41 The Elite Travel Stadium· Sudbury, Suffolk Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

AFC Sudbury PPG 0.65

0-4 MISS

Stourbridge PPG 1.05

Over2.5· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Sudbury face Stourbridge in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Sudbury a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Stourbridge 55%, so Stourbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AFC Sudbury and 2.3 for Stourbridge (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Sudbury are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.05 for Stourbridge. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -19.1%

Draw 19.7%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -21.2%

Away 55.3%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -0.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.7% Odds: 1.53 +12.8%

Over 3.5 53.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 70.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Sudbury

1.52

Stourbridge

2.31

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +12.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.65) vs Away AVERAGE (1.05)