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AFC Sudbury vs Stourbridge Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

AFC Sudbury

PPG 0.65 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stourbridge

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.0%0-25.8%0-34.4%0-4+4.4%1 1-03.3%1-17.6%1-28.8%1-36.8%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.5%2-15.8%2-26.7%2-35.2%2-4+5.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.9%3-23.4%3-32.6%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.6%4+-21.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -19.1%

Draw 19.7% 25.0% 4.00 -21.2%

Away win 55.3% 55.6% 1.80 -0.5%

Over 2.5 73.7% 65.4% 1.53 +12.8%

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 70.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob70.5%

A 55% / xG 1.5-2.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Sudbury1.5

Stourbridge2.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC SUDBURY · PPG 0.65

STOURBRIDGE · PPG 1.05

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.65) vs Away AVERAGE (1.05)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Sudbury (H) 24.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.1%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.2%

Stourbridge (A) 55.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Sudbury face Stourbridge in England - Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Sudbury a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Stourbridge 55%, so Stourbridge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AFC Sudbury and 2.3 for Stourbridge (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Sudbury are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.05 for Stourbridge. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-4.

AFC Sudbury vs Stourbridge Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Southern Central

Match Preview & Prediction

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