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Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Dinamo Minsk

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.4%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-110.2%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 76.9% 1.30 -30.8%

Draw 24.7% 22.7% 4.40 +5.2%

Away win 22.1% 11.1% 9.00 +59.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.9% 2.57 -15.6%

BTTS 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Minsk1.9

Dnepr Mogilev0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MINSK · PPG 1.33

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Minsk (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -30.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.2%

Dnepr Mogilev (A) 22.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +59.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Minsk face Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Minsk a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Dnepr Mogilev 22%, so Dinamo Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dinamo Minsk and 0.8 for Dnepr Mogilev (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Minsk are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Dnepr Mogilev. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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