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Warrington vs Workington Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Warrington

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Workington

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+33.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.2%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.7%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 40.0% 2.50 +33.8%

Draw 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -19.4%

Away win 21.8% 42.0% 2.38 -48.1%

Over 2.5 47.2% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.9%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warrington1.6

Workington0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WARRINGTON · PPG 1.63

WORKINGTON · PPG 0.84

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.84)

Win probability 1X2

Warrington (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +33.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.4%

Workington (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -48.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warrington face Workington in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warrington a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Workington 22%, so Warrington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Warrington and 0.9 for Workington (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warrington are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.84 for Workington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Warrington vs Workington Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Non League Premier - Northern Predictions