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Morpeth Town vs Warrington Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Morpeth Town

PPG 1.58 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Warrington

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.4%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-111.8%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-15.0%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 48.8% 2.05 +11.3%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -17.2%

Away win 20.6% 32.3% 3.10 -36.1%

Over 2.5 44.9% 57.8% 1.73 -22.3%

Over 3.5 23.7% — — —

BTTS 46.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0✓ 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Morpeth Town1.6

Warrington0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MORPETH TOWN · PPG 1.58

WARRINGTON · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.58) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Morpeth Town (H) 54.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +11.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.2%

Warrington (A) 20.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Morpeth Town face Warrington in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Morpeth Town a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Warrington 21%, so Morpeth Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Morpeth Town and 0.9 for Warrington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Morpeth Town are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.89 for Warrington. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Morpeth Town vs Warrington Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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