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Workington vs Leek Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Workington

PPG 1.26 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leek Town

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.26), Away AVERAGE (1.26)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.5%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.4%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

Draw 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -15.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 55.6% 1.80 -16.8%

Over 3.5 24.7% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.2%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Workington1.5

Leek Town1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WORKINGTON · PPG 1.26

LEEK TOWN · PPG 1.26

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.26), Away AVERAGE (1.26)

Win probability 1X2

Workington (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Leek Town (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Workington face Leek Town in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Workington a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Leek Town 27%, so Workington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Workington and 1.1 for Leek Town (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Workington are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.26 for Leek Town. This match finished 0-1.

Workington vs Leek Town Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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