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Hednesford vs Ashton Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Hednesford

PPG 2.32 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ashton Utd

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-14.0%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.7%1-18.2%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.1%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-15.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-14.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.4% 80.0% 1.25 -8.3%

Draw 18.3% 21.7% 4.60 -15.8%

Away win 8.3% 10.3% 9.75 -19.1%

Over 2.5 47.3% 64.5% 1.55 -26.7%

Over 3.5 25.7% — — —

BTTS 35.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.4%

H 73% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 3–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hednesford2.0

Ashton Utd0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEDNESFORD · PPG 2.32

ASHTON UTD · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.32), Away AVERAGE (1.21) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hednesford (H) 73.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -8.3%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -15.8%

Ashton Utd (A) 8.3%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hednesford face Ashton Utd in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hednesford a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Ashton Utd 8%, so Hednesford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hednesford and 0.5 for Ashton Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hednesford are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 1.21 for Ashton Utd. This match finished 3-3.

Hednesford vs Ashton Utd Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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