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Lancaster City vs Stocksbridge P. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Lancaster City

PPG 1.68 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Stocksbridge P.

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.1%1-18.0%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-16.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 78.1% 1.28 -5.5%

Draw 16.9% 20.8% 4.80 -18.9%

Away win 9.3% 12.9% 7.75 -27.9%

Over 2.5 56.0% 62.5% 1.60 -10.4%

Over 3.5 33.6% — — —

BTTS 43.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.4%

H 74% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.8%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lancaster City2.3

Stocksbridge P.0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LANCASTER CITY · PPG 1.68

STOCKSBRIDGE P. · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.68) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Lancaster City (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -5.5%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -18.9%

Stocksbridge P. (A) 9.3%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lancaster City face Stocksbridge P. in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lancaster City a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Stocksbridge P. 9%, so Lancaster City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lancaster City and 0.7 for Stocksbridge P. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lancaster City are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 0.95 for Stocksbridge P.. This match finished 2-0.

Lancaster City vs Stocksbridge P. Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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