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Ilkeston Town vs FC United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 42 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Ilkeston Town

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC United

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.79)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.7%0-26.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.5%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-18.0%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 40.8% 2.45 -12.0%

Draw 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.8%

Away win 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Over 2.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% — — —

BTTS 53.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.2%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilkeston Town1.3

FC United1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ILKESTON TOWN · PPG 1.53

FC UNITED · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Ilkeston Town (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -12.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.8%

FC United (A) 37.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilkeston Town face FC United in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilkeston Town a 36% chance, the draw 26% and FC United 38%, so FC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ilkeston Town and 1.3 for FC United (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilkeston Town are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.79 for FC United. This match finished 3-2.

Ilkeston Town vs FC United Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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