Today / Burnley vs Wolverhampton

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Prediction

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Burnley

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wolverhampton

PPG 0.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.28)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.0%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.7%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 21.6% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burnley1.4

Wolverhampton1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BURNLEY · PPG 0.67

WOLVERHAMPTON · PPG 0.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.28)

Win probability 1X2

Burnley (H) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wolverhampton (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Wolverhampton on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Wolverhampton 25%, so Burnley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Burnley and 1.0 for Wolverhampton (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.28 for Wolverhampton. This match finished 1-1.

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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