Stockton Town vs Lancaster City Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

England - Non League Premier - Northern Regular Season - 41 The Map Group UK Stadium· Stockton-on-Tees Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Stockton Town PPG 1.74

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Lancaster City PPG 1.37

Home· +9.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockton Town face Lancaster City in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockton Town a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Lancaster City 22%, so Stockton Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Stockton Town and 1.2 for Lancaster City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockton Town are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.37 for Lancaster City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.1%

Odds: 1.95 EV: +9.4%

Draw 21.8%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -29.1%

Away 22.1%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -29.3%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.1% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 37.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.7% Odds: 1.67 -2.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stockton Town

1.96

Lancaster City

1.15

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (—), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.74) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)