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Stockton Town vs Lancaster City Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Regular Season - 41 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stockton Town

PPG 1.74 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lancaster City

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.1%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.7%1-110.1%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.9%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 51.3% 1.95 +9.4%

Draw 21.8% 30.8% 3.25 -29.1%

Away win 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -29.3%

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 58.7% 59.9% 1.67 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockton Town2.0

Lancaster City1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKTON TOWN · PPG 1.74

LANCASTER CITY · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.74) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)

Win probability 1X2

Stockton Town (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +9.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -29.1%

Lancaster City (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockton Town face Lancaster City in England - Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockton Town a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Lancaster City 22%, so Stockton Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Stockton Town and 1.2 for Lancaster City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockton Town are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.37 for Lancaster City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Stockton Town vs Lancaster City Prediction— England - Non League Premier - Northern

Match Preview & Prediction

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